대기 (Atmosphere)

  • 제17권4호
  • /
  • Pages.365-379
  • /
  • 2007
  • /
  • 1598-3560(pISSN)
  • /
  • 2288-3266(eISSN)
한국기상학회 (Korean Meteorological Society)
권호 표지

ECHO-G/S에 나타난 기후변화에 따른 엘니뇨 변화 특성 분석

ENSO Response to Global Warming as Simulated by ECHO-G/S

  • 이효신 (국립기상연구소 기후연구팀) ;
  • 권원태 (국립기상연구소 기후연구팀) ;
  • 안중배 (부산대학교 대기과학과) ;
  • 부경온 (국립기상연구소 기후연구팀) ;
  • 차유미 (국립기상연구소 기후연구팀)
  • Lee, Hyo-Shin (Korea Meteorological Administration, Meteorological Research Institute) ;
  • Kwon, Won-Tae (Korea Meteorological Administration, Meteorological Research Institute) ;
  • Ahn, Joong-Bae (Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University) ;
  • Boo, Kyung-On (Korea Meteorological Administration, Meteorological Research Institute) ;
  • Ch, Yu-Mi (Korea Meteorological Administration, Meteorological Research Institute)
  • 투고 : 2007.04.25
  • 심사 : 2007.12.06
  • 발행 : 2007.12.31
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초록

Global warming may shift the properties and dynamics of ENSO. We study the changes in ENSO characteristics in a coupled general circulation model, ECHO-G/S. First, we analyse the mean state changes by comparing present day simulation and various high $CO_2$ climates. The model shows a little El Nino-like changes in the sea surface temperature and wind stress in the eastern tropical Pacific. As the mean temperature rises, the ENSO amplitude and the frequency of strong El Ninos and La Nina decrease. The analysis shows that the weakening of the oceanic sensitivities is related to the weakening of ENSO. In addition to the surface changes, the remote subsurface sea temperature response in the western Pacific to the wind stress in the eastern Pacific influences the subsequent ENSO amplitude. However, ENSO amplitude does not show linear response to the greenhouse gas concentrations.

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