Determinants for Korea-China Tarde Volume

한.중 무역량에 영향을 미치는 결정요인 분석

China and Korea have interacted with each other for 20 years since 1992 when China and Korea established diplomatic relations. During this period, the trade and investment between two countries have increased rapidly. In addition to the enhancement of economic cooperation and the expansion of personal exchange, the relationship between two countries was upgraded to mutual strategic cooperative relationship in 2008 from the 1 friendly and cooperative relations and the economic exchange and cooperation were largely expanded. In this paper, the current situation and characteristics of the trade between China and Korea were figured out. In order to find out the development direction of China and Korea trade, through empirical analysis, the correlation of decisive factors that influence the trade amount of these two countries were analyzed. In terms of dependent variables for the empirical analysis, the trade amount between China and Korea was considered. While the GDP of these countries, the direct investment amount of two countries and the openness of external trade of these countries were considered as independent variables. The degree of economic freedom of these countries was set as policy variable. According to the analysis results, when the GDP of China and Korea is getting higher, there is positive influence on the trade amount of China and Korea. It is showed that the direct investment of Korea has positive influence on the trade amount of China and Korea. Meanwhile, there is negative influence of China's direct investment on the trade amount. When the degree of freedom of these countries is getting higher, the influence of trade amount was showed significantly. Furthermore, when the economic freedom of these countries is getting higher, the insignificant things about trade amount of China and Korea were extracted as insignificant.

본 논문에서는 한 중 무역 현황과 특징을 파악하고 앞으로 한 중 무역의 발전방향을 모색하기 위해 실증분석을 통하여 한 중 무역량에 영향을 미치는 결정요인들의 상관관계를 분석하고자 한다. 2000년부터 2013년까지 14년간의 분기별 데이터를 시용하여 실증분석 방법을 통해 도출된 분석결과는 한 중 양국의 GDP가 높을수록 한 중 무역량에 정(+)의 영향이 유의적인 결과를 나타냈다. 한국의 직접투자가 한 중 무역량에 정(+)의 영향이 있다는 것을 보인 반면에 중국의 직접투자가 한 중 무역량에 부(-)의 영향이 있다는 것을 나타냈다. 한 중 양국의 대외개방도가 높을수록 한 중 무역량의 영향이 유의한다는 것을 보였다. 그리고 한 중 양국의 경제자유도가 높을수록 한 중 무역량에 대해 유의하지 않다는 것을 확인하였다. 연구 시사점은 중국의 대한국 투자분야에 있어 포트폴리오 부동산 투자분야 보다는 그린필드투자(Greenfield)를 적극 유도할 필요가 있으며, 한중 FTA 체결도 보다 신속하게 체결할 필요가 있다고 하겠다.