대기 (Atmosphere)

  • 제24권3호
  • /
  • Pages.419-432
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  • 2014
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  • 1598-3560(pISSN)
  • /
  • 2288-3266(eISSN)
한국기상학회 (Korean Meteorological Society)
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2013년 태풍에 대한 수치모델들의 강도 예측성 평가

Evaluation of the Intensity Predictability of the Numerical Models for Typhoons in 2013

  • Kim, Ji-Seon (National Typhoon Center/Korea Meteorological Administration) ;
  • Lee, Woojeong (National Typhoon Center/Korea Meteorological Administration) ;
  • Kang, KiRyong (National Typhoon Center/Korea Meteorological Administration) ;
  • Byun, Kun-Young (National Typhoon Center/Korea Meteorological Administration) ;
  • Kim, Jiyoung (Weather Radar Center/Korea Meteorological Administration) ;
  • Yun, Won-Tae (National Typhoon Center/Korea Meteorological Administration)
  • 투고 : 2014.04.29
  • 심사 : 2014.08.22
  • 발행 : 2014.09.30
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초록

An assessment of typhoon intensity predictability of numerical models was conducted to develop the typhoon intensity forecast guidance comparing with the RSMC-Tokyo best track data. Root mean square error, box plot analysis and time series of wind speed comparison were performed to evaluate the each model error level. One of noticeable fact is that all models have a trend of error increase as typhoon becomes stronger and the Global Forecast System showed the best performance among the models. In the detailed analysis in two typhoon cases [Danas (1324) and Haiyan (1330)], GFS showed good performance in maximum wind speed and intensity trend in the best track, however it could not simulate well the rapid intensity increasing period. On the other hand, ECMWF and Hurricane-WRF overestimated the typhoon intensity but simulated track trend well.

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참고문헌

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