Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment (환경영향평가)

Korean Society of Environmental Impact Assessment (한국환경영향평가학회)
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Trend and prediction of the Ecological Footprint in Korea

우리나라 생태발자국(EF) 추이와 예측

  • Yeo, Min Ju (Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Ewha Womans University) ;
  • Kim, Yong Pyo (Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Ewha Womans University)
  • 여민주 (이화여자대학교 환경공학과) ;
  • 김용표 (이화여자대학교 환경공학과)
  • Received : 2014.08.13
  • Accepted : 2014.10.11
  • Published : 2014.10.31
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Abstract

Ecological Footprint (EF) in Korea has increased steeply over the past 50 years and, thus, the overshoot. It has been known that the main causes of the overshoot are population growth and the increase of the consumption intensity per person. In this study, the EF trend in Korea is analyzed for the past 50 years and it is found the major cause of the rapid increase of EF in Korea is the increase of the consumption intensity per person. Among the sectors of the consumption, Carbon Footprint (CF) from the energy consumption and Grazing Land Footprint and Fishing Grounds Footprint from the protein consumption are the major players for the increase. It is also found that if current trend of the EF per person would be maintained until 2060, EF in Korea would be expected to increase also continuously, despite of the decrease of the population from 2031. Therefore, the direction of the environmental management should be considered for inducing the change of the individual consumption patterns and the behavioral changes.

과거 50여 년간 한국의 생태발자국(Ecological Footprint, EF)은 가파르게 증가해 왔으며, 이에 따라 오버슈트(Overshoot) 역시 증가해 왔다. 오버슈트를 야기하는 중요한 원인에는 인구 증가와 일인당 자원 사용 강도 증가가 있다. 본 연구에서는 이들 원인 가운데 어떤 변수가 지난 50여 년간 한국의 EF에 더 큰 영향을 미쳤는지에 대해 알아보았다. 소비 부문들 가운데, 에너지 소비에 따른 탄소발자국(Carbon Footprint, CF), 단백질 섭취에 따른 초지발자국(Grazing Land Footprint)과 어장 발자국(Fishing Grounds)이 EF 증가에 크게 영향을 주었다. 지난 50여 년간의 추세가 앞으로도 유지된다면, 2060년에는 일인당 EF 값이 2009년 현재의 2배에 달할 것으로 보이며, 2031년 이후 인구가 감소함에도 불구하고 1인당 EF 값의 증가에 따른 영향으로 EF는 2059년까지 증가할 것으로 보인다. 그러므로 향후 개개인의 소비 패턴과 행동 변화를 유도하는 것으로 환경관리 방향을 전환해갈 필요가 있을 것이다.

Keywords

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