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Korean Meteorological Society (한국기상학회)
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Development of the Global-Korean Aviation Turbulence Guidance (Global-KTG) System Using the Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS) of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA)

기상청 전지구 수치예보모델을 이용한 전지구 한국형 항공난류 예측시스템(G-KTG) 개발

  • Lee, Dan-Bi (Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University) ;
  • Chun, Hye-Yeong (Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University)
  • Received : 2018.04.23
  • Accepted : 2018.05.23
  • Published : 2018.06.30
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Abstract

The Global-Korean aviation Turbulence Guidance (G-KTG) system is developed using the operational Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System of Korea Meteorological Administration with 17-km horizontal grid spacing. The G-KTG system provides an integrated solution of various clear-air turbulence (CAT) diagnostics and mountain-wave induced turbulence (MWT) diagnostics for low [below 10 kft (3.05 km)], middle [10 kft (3.05 km) - 20 kft (6.10 km)], and upper [20 kft (6.10 km) - 50 kft (15.24 km)] levels. Individual CAT and MWT diagnostics in the G-KTG are converted to a 1/3 power of energy dissipation rate (EDR). 12-h forecast of the G-KTG is evaluated using 6-month period (2016.06~2016.11) of in-situ EDR observation data. The forecast skill is calculated by area under curve (AUC) where the curve is drawn by pairs of probabilities of detection of "yes" for moderate-or-greater-level turbulence events and "no" for null-level turbulence events. The AUCs of G-KTG for the upper, middle, and lower levels are 0.79, 0.69, and 0.63, respectively. Comparison of the upper-level G-KTG with the regional-KTG in East Asia reveals that the forecast skill of the G-KTG (AUC = 0.77) is similar to that of the regional-KTG (AUC = 0.79) using the Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System with 12-km horizontal grid spacing.

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References

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