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Korean Meteorological Society (한국기상학회)
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Evaluation of Performance and Uncertainty for Multi-RCM over CORDEX-East Asia Phase 2 region

CORDEX-동아시아 2단계 영역에 대한 다중 RCM의 모의성능 및 불확실성 평가

  • Kim, Jin-Uk (Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Kim, Tae-Jun (Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Kim, Do-Hyun (Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Kim, Jin-Won (Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Cha, Dong-Hyun (School of Urban and Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology) ;
  • Min, Seung-Ki (School Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology) ;
  • Kim, Yeon-Hee (Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences)
  • 김진욱 (국립기상과학원 미래기반연구부) ;
  • 김태준 (국립기상과학원 미래기반연구부) ;
  • 김도현 (국립기상과학원 미래기반연구부) ;
  • 김진원 (국립기상과학원 미래기반연구부) ;
  • 차동현 (울산과학기술원 도시환경공학부) ;
  • 민승기 (포항공과대학교) ;
  • 김연희 (국립기상과학원 미래기반연구부)
  • Received : 2020.07.31
  • Accepted : 2020.10.13
  • Published : 2020.12.31
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Abstract

This study evaluates multiple Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in simulating temperature and precipitation over the Far East Asia (FEA) and estimates the portions of the total uncertainty originating in the RCMs and the driving Global Climate Models (GCMs) using nine present-day (1981~2000) climate data obtained from combinations of three GCMs and three RCMs in the CORDEX-EA phase2. Downscaling using the RCMs generally improves the present temperature and precipitation simulated in the GCMs. The mean temperature climate in the RCM simulations is similar to that in the GCMs; however, RCMs yield notably better spatial variability than the GCMs. In particular, the RCMs generally yield positive added values to the variability of the summer temperature and the winter precipitation. Evaluating the uncertainties by the GCMs (VARGCM) and the RCMs (VARRCM) on the basis of two-way ANOVA shows that VARRCM is greater than VARGCM in contrast to previous studies which showed VARGCM is larger. In particular, in the winter temperature, the ocean has a very large VARRCM of up to 30%. Precipitation shows that VARRCM is greater than VARGCM in all seasons, but the difference is insignificant. In the following study, we will analyze how the uncertainty of the climate model in the present-day period affects future climate change prospects.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

본 논문의 개선을 위해 좋은 의견을 제시해 주신 두 분의 심사위원께 감사를 드립니다. 이 연구는 기상청 국립기상과학원 「AR6 기후변화시나리오 개발·평가」 (KMA2018-00321)의 지원으로 수행되었습니다.

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