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Korean Meteorological Society (한국기상학회)
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Impact of Future Air Quality in East Asia under SSP Scenarios

SSP 시나리오에 따른 동아시아 대기질 미래 전망

  • Shim, Sungbo (Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Korea Meteorological Administration) ;
  • Seo, Jeongbyn (Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Korea Meteorological Administration) ;
  • Kwon, Sang-Hoon (Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Korea Meteorological Administration) ;
  • Lee, Jae-Hee (Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Korea Meteorological Administration) ;
  • Sung, Hyun Min (Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Korea Meteorological Administration) ;
  • Boo, Kyung-On (Operation Systems Development Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Korea Meteorological Administration) ;
  • Byun, Young-Hwa (Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Korea Meteorological Administration) ;
  • Lim, Yoon-Jin (Numerical Model Development Division, Numerical Modeling Center, Korea Meteorological Administration) ;
  • Kim, Yeon-Hee (Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Korea Meteorological Administration)
  • 심성보 (기상청 국립기상과학원 미래기반연구부) ;
  • 서정빈 (기상청 국립기상과학원 미래기반연구부) ;
  • 권상훈 (기상청 국립기상과학원 미래기반연구부) ;
  • 이재희 (기상청 국립기상과학원 미래기반연구부) ;
  • 성현민 (기상청 국립기상과학원 미래기반연구부) ;
  • 부경온 (기상청 국립기상과학원 현업운영개발부) ;
  • 변영화 (기상청 국립기상과학원 미래기반연구부) ;
  • 임윤진 (기상청 수치모델링센터 수치모델개발과) ;
  • 김연희 (기상청 국립기상과학원 미래기반연구부)
  • Received : 2020.09.11
  • Accepted : 2020.09.29
  • Published : 2020.12.31
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Abstract

This study investigates the change in the fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration and World Health Organization (WHO) air quality index (AQI) in East Asia (EA) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). AQI is an indicator of increasing levels about health concern, divided into six categories based on PM2.5 annual concentrations. Here, we utilized the ensemble results of UKESM1, the climate model operated in Met Office, UK, for the analysis of long-term variation during the historical (1950~2014) and future (2015~2100) period. The results show that the spatial distributions of simulated PM2.5 concentrations in present-day (1995~2014) are comparable to observations. It is found that most regions in EA exceeded the WHO air quality guideline except for Japan, Mongolia regions, and the far seas during the historical period. In future scenarios containing strong air quality (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5) and medium air quality (SSP2-4.5) controls, PM2.5 concentrations are substantially reduced, resulting in significant improvement in AQI until the mid-21st century. On the other hand, the mild air pollution controls in SSP3-7.0 tend to lead poor AQI in China and Korea. This study also examines impact of increased in PM2.5 concentrations on downward shortwave energy at the surface. As a result, strong air pollution controls can improve air quality through reduced PM2.5 concentrations, but lead to an additional warming in both the near and mid-term future climate over EA.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

이 연구는 기상청 국립기상과학원 「기상업무지원 기술개발연구」 "AR6 기후변화 시나리오 개발·평가(KMA2018-00321)"의 지원으로 수행되었습니다.

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