대기 (Atmosphere)

  • 제31권5호
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  • Pages.607-623
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  • 2021
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  • 1598-3560(pISSN)
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  • 2288-3266(eISSN)
한국기상학회 (Korean Meteorological Society)
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CORDEX-EA Phase 2 다중 지역기후모델을 이용한 한반도 미래 극한 기후 전망

Future Projection of Extreme Climate over the Korean Peninsula Using Multi-RCM in CORDEX-EA Phase 2 Project

  • 김도현 (국립기상과학원 기후변화예측연구팀) ;
  • 김진욱 (국립기상과학원 기후변화예측연구팀) ;
  • 변영화 (국립기상과학원 기후변화예측연구팀) ;
  • 김태준 (국립기상과학원 기후변화예측연구팀) ;
  • 김진원 (국립기상과학원 기후변화예측연구팀) ;
  • 김연희 (국립기상과학원 미래기반연구부) ;
  • 안중배 (부산대학교 대기환경과학과) ;
  • 차동현 (울산과학기술원 도시환경공학과) ;
  • 민승기 (포항공과대학교 환경공학부) ;
  • 장은철 (공주대학교 대기과학과)
  • Kim, Do-Hyun (Climate Change Research Team, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Kim, Jin-Uk (Climate Change Research Team, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Byun, Young-Hwa (Climate Change Research Team, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Kim, Tae-Jun (Climate Change Research Team, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Kim, Jin-Won (Climate Change Research Team, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Kim, Yeon-Hee (Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Ahn, Joong-Bae (Department of Atmospheric Science, Pusan National University) ;
  • Cha, Dong-Hyun (Department of Urban and Environmental Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology) ;
  • Min, Seung-Ki (Division of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology) ;
  • Chang, Eun-Chul (Department of Atmospheric Science, Kongju National University)
  • 투고 : 2021.09.17
  • 심사 : 2021.12.08
  • 발행 : 2021.12.31
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⟨ 이전 논문 다음 논문 ⟩

초록

This study presents projections of future extreme climate over the Korean Peninsula (KP), using bias-corrected data from multiple regional climate model (RCM) simulations in CORDEX-EA Phase 2 project. In order to confirm difference according to degree of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission, high GHG path of SSP5-8.5 and low GHG path of SSP1-2.6 scenario are used. Under SSP5-8.5 scenario, mean temperature and precipitation over KP are projected to increase by 6.38℃ and 20.56%, respectively, in 2081~2100 years compared to 1995~2014 years. Projected changes in extreme climate suggest that intensity indices of extreme temperatures would increase by 6.41℃ to 8.18℃ and precipitation by 24.75% to 33.74%, being bigger increase than their mean values. Both of frequency indices of the extreme climate and consecutive indices of extreme precipitation are also projected to increase. But the projected changes in extreme indices vary regionally. Under SSP1-2.6 scenario, the extreme climate indices would increase less than SSP5-8.5 scenario. In other words, temperature (precipitation) intensity indices would increase 2.63℃ to 3.12℃ (14.09% to 16.07%). And there is expected to be relationship between mean precipitation and warming, which mean precipitation would increase as warming with bigger relationship in northern KP (4.08% ℃-1) than southern KP (3.53% ℃-1) under SSP5-8.5 scenario. The projected relationship, however, is not significant for extreme precipitation. It seems because of complex characteristics of extreme precipitation from summer monsoon and typhoon over KP.

키워드

과제정보

본 논문의 개선을 위해 좋은 의견을 제시해 주신 두 분의 심사위원께 감사를 드립니다. 이 연구는 기상청 국립기상과학원 「AR6 기후변화시나리오 개발·평가」 (KMA2018-00321)의 지원을 통해 수행되었습니다.

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