Acknowledgement
This work was supported by the Research Institute of Natural Science of Gangneung-Wonju National University.
References
- Anderson, J. R. (1994). Simpler exponentially weighted moving averages with irregular updating periods. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 45, 486. https://doi.org/10.1057/jors.1994.73
- Anderson, T. W. (1971). The statistical analysis of time series. New York: Wiley.
- Archibald, B. C. (1990). Parameter space of the Holt-Winters' model, International Journal of Forecasting, 6, 199-209. https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(90)90005-V
- Archibald, B. C., & Koehler, A. B. (2003). Normalization of seasonal factors in Winters' methods. International Journal of Forecasting, 19, 143-148. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2070(01)00117-0
- Bartolomei, S. M., & Sweet, A. L. (1989). A note on a comparison of exponential smoothing methods for forecasting seasonal series. International Journal of Forecasting, 5, 111-116. https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(89)90068-X
- Bianchi, L., Jarrett, J., & Hanumara, R. C. (1998). Improving forecasting for telemarketing centers by ARIMA modeling with intervention. International Journal of Forecasting, 14, 497-504. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2070(98)00037-5
- Bowerman, B. L., O'Connell, R., & Koehler, A. B. (2005). Forecasting, time series, and regression (4th edition). Pacific Grove, CA: Duxbury Press.
- Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., & Reinsel, G. C. (1994). Time series analysis: forecasting and control 3rd ed. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.
- Brown, R. G. (1959). Statistical forecasting for inventory control. New York: McGraw-Hill.
- Brown, R. G. (1963). Smoothing, forecasting and prediction of discrete time series. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
- Broze, L., & Melard, G. (1990). Exponential smoothing: Estimation by maximum likelihood. Journal of Forecasting, 9, 445-455. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3980090504
- Chatfield, C. (1988). What is the 'best method' of forecasting? Journal of Applied Statistics, 15, 19-38. https://doi.org/10.1080/02664768800000003
- Chatfield, C. (1993). Calculating interval forecasts. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 11, 121-135. https://doi.org/10.2307/1391361
- Chatfield, C. (1995). Model uncertainty, data mining and statistical inference. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 158, 419-466. https://doi.org/10.2307/2983440
- Chatfield, C. (1996). Model uncertainty and forecast accuracy. Journal of Forecasting, 15, 495-508. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-131X(199612)15:7<495::AID-FOR640>3.0.CO;2-O
- Chatfield, C. (1997). Forecasting in the 1990s. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series D, 46, 461-473.
- Chatfield, C. (2002). Confessions of a pragmatic statistician. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series D, 51, 1-20. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9876.04615
- Cho, Y. J., Shin, N. L., & Kim, Y. J. (2020). The Determinants of Warehouse Stock Supply in Korea - Focusing on Online Shopping -. Korea Logistics Review, 30(6), 1-15.
- Fuller, W. A. (1995). Introduction to statistical time series 2d ed. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
- Gardner, E. S. Jr (1985). Exponential smoothing: the state of the art. Journal of Forecasting, 4, 1-28. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3980040103
- Gardner, E. S. Jr (2006). Exponential smoothing: The state of the art Part II. International Journal of Forecasting, 22, 637-677. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2006.03.005
- Hamilton, J. D. (1994). Time series analysis. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
- Jeong, D. B. (2009). Demanding forecasting of time series I. Seoul, Korea: Hannarae Academy.
- Jeong, D. B. (2010). Demanding forecasting of time series II. Seoul, Korea: Hannarae Academy.
- Jeong, D. B. (2016). Optimal forecasting for sales at convenience stores in Korea using seasonal ARIMA-Intervention model. Journal of Distribution Science, 14(11), 83-90. https://doi.org/10.15722/JDS.14.11.201611.83
- Jeong, D. B., & Wang, Q. (2016). Evaluation on Development Performances of E-Commerce for 50 Major Cities in China. Journal of Distribution Science, 14(1), 67-74. https://doi.org/10.15722/jds.14.1.201601.67
- Jeong, D. B. (2020). Forecasting for the recent domestic online shopping transactions. The Journal of Natural Science, GWNU, 26(1), 1-9.
- Jeun, S. T., Wang, L., & Rhee, T. H. (2020). A Study on the Effects of Inhibition Factors on Consumption and Repurchase Intention in Internet Shopping Mall Environment: Focusing on the Moderating Effect of Psychological Risk. The e-Business Studies, 21(1), 73-92. https://doi.org/10.20462/tebs.2020.02.21.1.73
- Kim, H. S. (2020). Global e-commerce trend since Corona19. Institute for International Trade, 2020(21), 1-25.
- Statistics Research Institute (2018). Knowing Online Shopping Trends, KOSTAT Statistics PLUS, 1, 67-73.
- Ljung, G. M., & Box, G. E. P. (1978). On a measure of lackoffit in time series models. Biometrika, 65, 297-303. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/65.2.297
- Oh, Y. S. (2020). Analysis of the Behavioral Behavior of Electronic Commerce due to Corona 19. KISDI STAT REPORT, 20(19), 1-6.
- Pankratz, A. (1983). Forecasting with univariate Box-Jenkins models: concepts and cases. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
- Roberts, S. A. (1982). A general class of Holt-Winters type forecasting models. Management Science, 28, 808-820. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.28.7.808
- Rosas, A. L., & Guerrero, V. M. (1994). Restricted forecasts using exponential smoothing techniques. International Journal of Forecasting, 10, 515-527. https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(94)90020-5
- Sun, I. S., Lee, C. H., & Park, S. H. (2017). Prediction of the Online Shopping Industry and Analysis of the Causal Relation between Retail Distribution Channels. The e-Business Studies, 18(4), 67-80. https://doi.org/10.20462/tebs.2017.08.18.4.67
- Tsay, R. S., & Tiao, G. C. (1984). Consistent estimates of autoregressive parameters and extended sample autocorrelation function for stationary and non- stationary ARMA Models. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 79, 84-96. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1984.10477068
- Trigg, D. W., & Leach, D. H. (1967). Exponential smoothing with an adaptive response rate. Operational Research Quarterly, 18, 53-59. https://doi.org/10.1057/jors.1967.5
- Winters, P. R. (1960). Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages. Management Science, 6(3), 324-342. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.6.3.324
- Xin, Gao, & Kim, M. S. (2017). Quality Determinants of Online Shopping Mall and Users' Characteristics as a Moderating Effect. Asiapacific Journal of Multimedia Services Convergent with Art, Humanities, and Sociology, 7(5), 665-674. https://doi.org/10.14257/AJMAHS.2017.05.41