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Korean Meteorological Society (한국기상학회)
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Downward Influences of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) in GloSea6: 2018 SSW Case Study

GloSea6 모형에서의 성층권 돌연승온 하층 영향 분석: 2018년 성층권 돌연승온 사례

  • Dong-Chan Hong (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University) ;
  • Hyeon-Seon Park (Department of Atmospheric Science, Kongju National University) ;
  • Seok-Woo Son (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University) ;
  • Joowan Kim (Department of Atmospheric Science, Kongju National University) ;
  • Johan Lee (Climate Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Yu-Kyung Hyun (Climate Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences)
  • 홍동찬 (서울대학교 지구환경과학부) ;
  • 박현선 (공주대학교 대기과학과) ;
  • 손석우 (서울대학교 지구환경과학부) ;
  • 김주완 (공주대학교 대기과학과) ;
  • 이조한 (국립기상과학원 기후연구부) ;
  • 현유경 (국립기상과학원 기후연구부)
  • Received : 2023.08.24
  • Accepted : 2023.10.10
  • Published : 2023.11.30
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Abstract

This study investigates the downward influences of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in February 2018 using a subseasonal-to-seasonal forecast model, Global Seasonal forecasting system version 6 (GloSea6). To quantify the influences of SSW on the tropospheric prediction skills, free-evolving (FREE) forecasts are compared to stratospheric nudging (NUDGED) forecasts where zonal-mean flows in the stratosphere are relaxed to the observation. When the models are initialized on 8 February 2018, both FREE and NUDGED forecasts successfully predicted the SSW and its downward influences. However, FREE forecasts initialized on 25 January 2018 failed to predict the SSW and downward propagation of negative Northern Annular Mode (NAM). NUDGED forecasts with SSW nudging qualitatively well predicted the downward propagation of negative NAM. In quantity, NUDGED forecasts exhibit a higher mean squared skill score of 500 hPa geopotential height than FREE forecasts in late February and early March. The surface air temperature and precipitation are also better predicted. Cold and dry anomalies over the Eurasia are particularly well predicted in NUDGED compared to FREE forecasts. These results suggest that a successful prediction of SSW could improve the surface prediction skills on subseasonal-to-seasonal time scale.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

이 연구는 기상청 국립기상과학원 기후예측 현업시스템 운영 및 개발(KMA2018-00322)과 과학기술정보통신부의 재원으로 한국연구재단의 지원을 받아 수행되었습니다(NRF-2020M1A5A1110579).

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