• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2015.05a
• /
• pp.235-235
• /
• 2015

This study investigates the impact of event characteristics on runoff dynamics during extreme flood events observed in a $8.5km^2$ experimental watershed located in South Korea. The 37 most extreme flood events with event rainfall in excess of 50 mm were analysed using an event-based rainfall-runoff model; the Revitalised Flood Hydrograph (ReFH) routinely used for design flood estimation in the United Kingdom. The ReFH model was fitted to each event in turn, and links were investigated between each of the two model parameters controlling runoff production and response time, respectively, and event characteristics such as rainfall depth, duration, intensity and also antecedent soil moisture. The results show that the structure of the ReFH model can effectively accommodate any nonlinearity in runoff production, but that the linear unit hydrograph fails to adequately represent a reduction in watershed response time observed for the more extreme events. By linking the unit hydrograph shape directly to rainfall depth, the consequence of the observed nonlinearity in response time is to increase design peak flow by between 50% for a 10 year return period, and up to 80% when considering the probable maximum flood (PMF).

• Journal of Environmental Science International
• /
• v.17 no.6
• /
• pp.657-669
• /
• 2008

Lately extreme weather event is occurring because of the global warming. Especially disaster due to the extreme heat are increasing but the definition and the standard of the extreme heat is obscure until now. So this study established the extreme heat standard by using the number of daily deaths. As a result, considering the climate of the megalopolis using daily maximum heat index and daily maximum temperature was the best for the standard of the extreme heat. And it showed that extreme heat lasted for 2 days affects the death toll the most. The regional incidence of the extreme heat is highest at August and July, September and June is following.

• International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
• /
• v.11 no.2
• /
• pp.191-195
• /
• 2023

An X-event is an event that is difficult to predict and unlikely to occur, but if it occurs, it has a very large ripple effect, such as loss of life, property, territory, and emotional turmoil. Extreme events are unlikely to occur, but they can happen someday, and if they do, they have a great impact on society as a whole, so they must be prepared to minimize the impact and impact. For this purpose, we collected opinions from low-level experts at the Korea Army Research Center for Future & Innovation and the Army College on extreme events that can trigger the near future (10 years) in the field of high-tech science and technology, which is currently developing rapidly after the 4th Industrial Revolution. The researchers intend to synthesize and analyze this data to derive implications and provide a response direction to alleviate the ultra-uncertainty of extreme events and provide a cornerstone for crisis management strategies for the occurrence of serial and simultaneous extreme events.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
• /
• v.18 no.1
• /
• pp.76-83
• /
• 2016

In recent, the series of extreme storm events were occurred by those continuous typhoons and the severe flood damages due to the loss of life and the destruction of property were involved. In this study, we call Mega flood for the Extreme flood occurred by these successive storm events and so we can have a hypothetical Mega flood by assuming that a extreme event can be successively occurred with a certain time interval. Inter Event Time Definition (IETD) method was used to determine the time interval between continuous events in order to simulate Mega flood. Therefore, the continuous extreme rainfall events are determined with IETD then Mega flood is simulated by the consecutive events : (1) consecutive occurrence of two historical extreme events, (2) consecutive occurrence of two design events obtained by the frequency analysis based on the historical data. We have shown that Mega floods by continuous extreme rainfall events were increased by 6-17% when we compared to typical flood by a single event. We can expect that flood damage caused by Mega flood leads to much greater than damage driven by a single rainfall event. The second increase in the flood caused by heavy rain is not much compared to the first flood caused by heavy rain. But Continuous heavy rain brings the two times of flood damage. Therefore, flood damage caused by the virtual Mega flood of is judged to be very large. Here we used the hypothetical rainfall events which can occur Mega floods and this could be used for preparing for unexpected flood disaster by simulating Mega floods defined in this study.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• v.47 no.1
• /
• pp.59-65
• /
• 2015

Background: After the Fukushima accident, the importance of hazard analysis for extreme external events was raised. Methods: To analyze typhoon-induced hazards, which are one of the significant disasters of East Asian countries, a statistical analysis using the extreme value theory, which is a method for estimating the annual exceedance frequency of a rare event, was conducted for an estimation of the occurrence intervals or hazard levels. For the four meteorological variables, maximum wind speed, instantaneous wind speed, hourly precipitation, and daily precipitation, the parameters of the predictive extreme value theory models were estimated. Results: The 100-year return levels for each variable were predicted using the developed models and compared with previously reported values. It was also found that there exist significant long-term climate changes of wind speed and precipitation. Conclusion: A fragility analysis should be conducted to ensure the safety levels of a nuclear power plant for high levels of wind speed and precipitation, which exceed the results of a previous analysis.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
• /
• v.33 no.2
• /
• pp.160-169
• /
• 2017

The objective of this study are to analyze changes in future rainfall patterns in the Soyang-dam watershed according to the RCP 4.5 scenario of climate change. Second objective is to project peak flow and hourly sediment simulated for the future extreme rainfall events using the SWAT model. For these, accuracy of SWAT hourly simulation for the large scale watershed was evaluated in advance. The results of model calibration showed that simulated peak flow matched observation well with acceptable average relative error. The results of future rainfall pattern changes analysis indicated that extreme storm events will become more severe and frequent as climate change progresses. Especially, possibility of occurrence of large scale extreme storm events will be greater on the periods of 2030-2040 and 2050-2060. In addition, as shown in the SWAT hourly simulation for the future extreme storm events, more severe flood and turbid water can happen in the future compared with the most devastating storm event which occurred by the typhoon Ewiniar in 2006 year. Thus, countermeasures against future extreme storm event and turbid water are needed to cope with climate change.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.43 no.4
• /
• pp.337-351
• /
• 2010

There is a growing dissatisfaction with use of conventional statistical methods for the prediction of extreme events. Conventional methodology for modeling extreme event consists of adopting an asymptotic model to describe stochastic variation. However asymptotically motivated models remain the centerpiece of our modeling strategy, since without such an asymptotic basis, models have no rational for extrapolation beyond the level of observed data. Also, this asymptotic models ignored or overestimate the uncertainty and finally decrease the reliability of uncertainty. Therefore this article provide the research example of the extreme rainfall event and the methodology to reduce the uncertainty. In this study, the Bayesian MCMC (Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo) and the MLE (Maximum Likelihood Estimation) methods using a quadratic approximation are applied to perform the at-site rainfall frequency analysis. Especially, the GEV distribution and Gumbel distribution which frequently used distribution in the fields of rainfall frequency distribution are used and compared. Also, the results of two distribution are analyzed and compared in the aspect of uncertainty.

• International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
• /
• v.11 no.2
• /
• pp.186-190
• /
• 2023

There are unimaginable possibilities ahead of us. As a result, it is difficult to predict the future, but the prediction itself is not meaningless. This is because it can have the flexibility to cope with contingencies by predicting various possibilities. This study was conducted to explore extreme events (X-event) in the Korean population sector. To this end, in-depth interviews were conducted with experts from the Korea Army Research Center for Future & Innovation and the Army College, and based on this, significant research results were derived that population problems such as population decline and aging can affect various fields such as economy. With this study, we hope that discussions on extreme events (X-event) that can occur in our society will be further activated.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
• /
• v.33 no.3
• /
• pp.282-290
• /
• 2017

A long-term resuspension of small particles, called persistent turbidity, is one of the most important water quality concerns in the dam reservoirs system located in North Han River. Persistent turbidity may incur aesthetic nuisance and harmful effect on the ecosystem health, in addition to elevated water treatment costs for the drinking water supply to the Seoul metropolitan area. These sufferings have been more intensified as the strength and frequency of rainfall events increase by climate change in the basin. This study was to analyze the effect of an extreme turbidity flow event that occurred in 2006 on the serial reservoirs system (Soyang-Uiam-Cheongpyung-Paldang) in North Han River. The CE-QUAL-W2 model was set up and calibrated for the river and reservoirs system using the field data obtained in 2006 and 2007. The results showed that Soyang Reservoir released turbid water, which was classified as the TSS concentration is greater than 25 mg/L, for 334 days with peak TSS of 264.1 mg/L after the extreme flood event (592.7 mm) occurred between July 10 and 18 of 2006. The turbid water departed from Soyang Reservoir reached at the most downstream Paldang Reservoir after about 20 days and sustained for 41 days, which was validated with water treatment plant data. Since the released water from Soyang Reservoir had low water temperature and high TSS, an underflow formed in the downstream reservoirs and vertically mixed at Paldang Reservoir due to dilution by the sufficient inflow from South Han River.

• Wind and Structures
• /
• v.15 no.2
• /
• pp.177-188
• /
• 2012

The meteorological events that cause most strong winds in Brazil are extra-tropical cyclones, downbursts and tornadoes. However, one hurricane formed off the coastline of southern Brazil in 2005, a tropical storm formed in 2010 and there are predictions that others may form again. Events such as those described in the paper and which have occurred before 1987, generate data for the wind map presented in the Brazilian wind loading code NBR-6123. This wind map presents the reference wind speeds based on 3-second gust wind speed at 10 m height in open terrain, with 50-year return period, varying from 30 m/s (north half of country) to 50 m/s (extreme south). There is not a separation of the type of climatological event which generated each registered velocity. Therefore, a thunderstorm (TS), an extra-tropical pressure system (EPS) or even a tropical cyclone (TC) are treated the same and its resulting velocities absorbed without differentiation. Since the flow fields generated by each type of meteorological event may be distinct, the indiscriminate combination of the highest wind velocities with aerodynamic coefficients from boundary layer wind tunnels may lead to erroneous loading in buildings.