• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.21-32
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• 1994

Effects on the scale and location parameters in the exponential model when both parameters changes will be considered, based on the complete or truncated samples by the maximum likelihood and jackknife methods.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.259-267
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• 2014

This paper presents a simple, consistent and reliable technique to identify detected partial discharges (PD) using an acoustic ultrasonic method. A new reliable algorithm named 'Simple Partial Discharge Identifier' (SPDI) is proposed to perform identification process of the detected ultrasonic signals of PD. Experimental works based on recommended practices were setup and the ultrasonic signals of the PD were recorded. The PD data is then employed as the reference data. The SPDI developed has been tested against commonly used models in Neural Network (NN). Results from the SPDI algorithm shows more reliable results compared to NN models results. Comparison made on the mean square error (MSE) results shows SPDI produces the desired outcome with lower MSE in 97.17% of trials. Low error of SPDI indicates a high reliability to be applied in the identification of PD.

• Journal of the Korean Mathematical Society
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.77-84
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• 1995

Many authors have utilized an exponential distribution because of its wide applicability in reliability engineering and statistical inferences (see Bain & Engelhart(1987) and Saunders & Mann(1985)). Here we are considering the parametric estimation in an exponential distribution when its scale and location parametes are linear functions of a known exposure level t, which often occurs in the engineering and physical phenomena.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.69-79
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• 1997

We consider the semiparametric linear errors-in-variables model: yi=(${\alpha}+{\beta}ui+{\varepsilon}i$, xi=ui＋${\varepsilon}i$ i=1, …, n where (xi, yi) stands for an observation vector, (ui) denotes a set of incidental nuisance parameters, (${\alpha}$ , ${\beta}$) is a vector of regression parameters and (${\varepsilon}i$, ${\delta}i$) are mutually uncorrelated measurement errors with zero mean and finite variances but otherwise unknown distributions. On the basis of a simple small-sample low-noise a, pp.oximation, we propose a new method of comparing the mean squared errors(MSE) of the various competing estimators of the true regression parameters ((${\alpha}$ , ${\beta}$). Then we show that a class of estimators including the classical least squares estimator and the maximum likelihood estimator are consistent and first-order efficient within the class of all regular consistent estimators irrespective of type of measurement errors.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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• v.40 no.7
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• pp.1217-1233
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• 2015

The paper studies characteristics of the minimum mean-square error symmetric scalar quantizers for the generalized gamma, Bucklew-Gallagher and Hui-Neuhoff probability density functions. Toward this goal, asymptotic formulas for the inner- and outermost thresholds, and distortion are derived herein for nonuniform quantizers for the Bucklew-Gallagher and Hui-Neuhoff densities, parallelling the previous studies for the generalized gamma density, and optimal uniform and nonuniform quantizers are designed numerically and their characteristics tabulated for integer rates up to 20 and 16 bits, respectively, except for the Hui-Neuhoff density. The assessed asymptotic formulas are found consistently more accurate as the rate increases, essentially making their asymptotic convergence to true values numerically acceptable at the studied bit range, except for the Hui-Neuhoff density, in which case they are still consistent and suggestive of convergence. Also investigated is the uniqueness problem of the differentiation method for finding optimal step sizes of uniform quantizers: it is observed that, for the commonly studied densities, the distortion has a unique local minimizer, hence showing that the differentiation method yields the optimal step size, but also observed that it leads to multiple solutions to numerous generalized gamma densities.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.80-90
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• 1995

In this paper we consider a new estimator of mean residual life(MRL) under the random censorship model, based on the partial moment of the distribution. The parameters of a partial moment are estimated by its maximum likelihood estimators when the underlying distribution is known. Though the new estimator is not a consistent estimator of the MRL, it is shown to have smaller mean squared error than the well known empirical MRL estimator for a parametric family. We also compare the proposed estimator with some other estimators in terms of MSE for exponential and lognormal distributions using censored data.

• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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• v.32 no.9
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• pp.1349-1354
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• 2019

Objective: The objective of this study was to determine the best approach for handling missing records of first to successful insemination (FS) in Japanese Black heifers. Methods: Of a total of 2,367 records of heifers born between 2003 and 2015 used, 206 (8.7%) of open heifers were missing. Four penalty methods based on the number of inseminations were set as follows: C1, FS average according to the number of inseminations; C2, constant number of days, 359; C3, maximum number of FS days to each insemination; and C4, average of FS at the last insemination and FS of C2. C5 was generated by adding a constant number (21 d) to the highest number of FS days in each contemporary group. The bootstrap method was used to compare among the 5 methods in terms of bias, mean squared error (MSE) and coefficient of correlation between estimated breeding value (EBV) of non-censored data and censored data. Three percentages (5%, 10%, and 15%) were investigated using the random censoring scheme. The univariate animal model was used to conduct genetic analysis. Results: Heritability of FS in non-censored data was $0.012{\pm}0.016$, slightly lower than the average estimate from the five penalty methods. C1, C2, and C3 showed lower standard errors of estimated heritability but demonstrated inconsistent results for different percentages of missing records. C4 showed moderate standard errors but more stable ones for all percentages of the missing records, whereas C5 showed the highest standard errors compared with noncensored data. The MSE in C4 heritability was $0.633{\times}10^{-4}$, $0.879{\times}10^{-4}$, $0.876{\times}10^{-4}$ and $0.866{\times}10^{-4}$ for 5%, 8.7%, 10%, and 15%, respectively, of the missing records. Thus, C4 showed the lowest and the most stable MSE of heritability; the coefficient of correlation for EBV was 0.88; 0.93 and 0.90 for heifer, sire and dam, respectively. Conclusion: C4 demonstrated the highest positive correlation with the non-censored data set and was consistent within different percentages of the missing records. We concluded that C4 was the best penalty method for missing records due to the stable value of estimated parameters and the highest coefficient of correlation.

• Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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• v.53 no.5
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• pp.699-706
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• 2020

Predictive models in food microbiology are used for predicting microbial growth or death rates using mathematical and statistical tools considering the intrinsic and extrinsic factors of food. This study developed predictive growth models for Bacillus cereus on dried laver Pyropia pseudolinearis stored at different temperatures (5, 10, 15, 20, and 25℃). Primary models developed for specific growth rate (SGR), lag time (LT), and maximum population density (MPD) indicated a good fit (R²≥0.98) with the Gompertz equation. The SGR values were 0.03, 0.08, and 0.12, and the LT values were 12.64, 4.01, and 2.17 h, at the storage temperatures of 15, 20, and 25℃, respectively. Secondary models for the same parameters were determined via nonlinear regression as follows: SGR=0.0228-0.0069*T₁+0.0005*T₁²; LT=113.0685-9.6256*T₁+0.2079*T₁²; MPD=1.6630+0.4284*T₁-0.0080*T₁² (where T₁ is the storage temperature). The appropriateness of the secondary models was validated using statistical indices, such as mean squared error (MSE<0.01), bias factor (0.99≤B_f≤1.07), and accuracy factor (1.01≤A_f≤1.14). External validation was performed at three random temperatures, and the results were consistent with each other. Thus, these models may be useful for predicting the growth of B. cereus on dried laver.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.49-64
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• 2024

Rocks undergoing repeated loading and unloading over an extended period, such as due to earthquakes, human excavation, and blasting, may result in the gradual accumulation of stress and deformation within the rock mass, eventually reaching an unstable state. In this study, a CNN-CCM is proposed to address the mechanical behavior. The structure and hyperparameters of CNN-CCM include Conv2D layers × 5; Max pooling2D layers × 4; Dense layers × 4; learning rate=0.001; Epoch=50; Batch size=64; Dropout=0.5. Training and validation data for deep learning include 71 rock samples and 122,152 data points. The AI Rock Constitutive Model learned by CNN-CCM can predict strain values(ε₁) using Mass (M), Axial stress (σ₁), Density (ρ), Cyclic number (N), Confining pressure (σ₃), and Young's modulus (E). Five evaluation indicators R², MAPE, RMSE, MSE, and MAE yield respective values of 0.929, 16.44%, 0.954, 0.913, and 0.542, illustrating good predictive performance and generalization ability of model. Finally, interpreting the AI Rock Constitutive Model using the SHAP explaining method reveals that feature importance follows the order N > M > σ₁ > E > ρ > σ₃.Positive SHAP values indicate positive effects on predicting strain ε₁ for N, M, σ₁, and σ₃, while negative SHAP values have negative effects. For E, a positive value has a negative effect on predicting strain ε₁, consistent with the influence patterns of conventional physical rock constitutive equations. The present study offers a novel approach to the investigation of the mechanical constitutive model of rocks under cyclic loading and unloading conditions.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.107-122
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• 2017

Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.