• 한국군사과학기술학회지
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• 제13권4호
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• pp.520-527
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• 2010

The kill probability of a missile depends on guidance error, warhead performance, and etc. In this paper, we analyzed the kill probability of anti-tank missile in a new approach. Under the condition that the missile hit the target, we studied the effect of angle of attack and impact angle. High impact angle increase the probability that the missile hits the upper armour which is relatively weaker, while high angle of attack at the impact instant decreases the effectiveness of the jet induced by the warhead. We proposed a way to increase the capability of penetration by analyzing the interrelation between impact angle and angle of attack.

• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국철도학회 2001년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.44-51
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• 2001

To account for uncertainties involved in an economic analysis of project, sensitivity analysis are usually being done in Korea. Though useful for policy analysis, but it larks explicit consideration of probability of occurring certain events considered in the sensitivity analysis. Risk analysis otherwise can explicitly account for the probability of certain event which has dire impact on project viability, such as cost, discount rate, and size of benefit. This paper reports experience of applying risk analysis method for economic evaluation of railroad investment. Probability distribution of event has paramount impact on the risk analysis results, while not many prior researches dealt with these issues. Probability distribution of rolling stock cost and operating cost, in addition to those cost variables, are developed considering railway demand in this study. Case study results are reported. Issues in applying risk analysis are reported in addition to further research direction.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• 제16권3호
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• pp.59-71
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• 2009

Hazard analysis identifies probability to hazard occurrence and its potential impact on business processes operated in organizations. This paper illustrates a quantitative approach of hazard analysis of information systems by measuring the degree of hazard to information systems using probabilistic risk analysis and activity based costing technique. Specifically the research model projects probability of occurrence by PRA and economic loss by ABC under each identified hazard. To verify the model, each computerized subsystem which is called a business process and hazards occurred on information systems are gathered through one private organization. The loss impact of a hazard occurrence is produced by multiplying probability by the economic loss.

• Composites Research
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• 제22권6호
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• pp.18-22
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• 2009

본 논문에서는 복합적층판의 저속충격실험을 통하여 충격력과 충격거동의 관계를 확인하였다. 또한 육안으로 확인하기 어려운 손상역영을 탐지하기 위하여 비파괴검사인 c-scan을 이용하였다. CAI실험을 통하여 저속충격을 받은 복합적층판의 압축강도를 측정하였다. 저속충격실험, 비파괴검사, CAI실험을 통한 복합적층판의 저속충격거동 특성을 확인하기 위해 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 적용하여 가상의 확률분포를 나타냈다. 가시화된 통계적 확률분포를 이용하여 주요변수들을 비교 및 분석하였다.

• 경영과학
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• 제21권3호
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• pp.129-147
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• 2004

Scenario analysis for strategic planning, unlike most forecasting methods, provides a qualitative, contextual description of how the present will evolve into the future. It normally tries to identify a set of possible futures, each of whose occurrence is plausible but not assured. In this paper, we propose the use of Cross Impact Analysis(CIA) approach for scenario generation about the future of Korean IT environments. In this analysis, we classified IT environments into technical, social, legislative, and economic factor. And various variables and events were defined in each factor. From the survey collected from IT related experts, we acquire probability of occurrence and compatibility estimates of every possible pairs of events as input. Then 2 phase analysis is used in order to choice events with high probability of occurrence and generate scenario. Finally, after CIA using Monte Carlo simulation, a detail scenario for 2010 was developed. These scenario drawn from the CIA approach is a result considered by cross impacts of various events.

• 소음진동
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• 제6권6호
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• pp.735-747
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• 1996

In this paper, buckling reliability analyses of stiffened cylinder with random initial geometric imperfection under axial impact load are performed by the combined response surface method. The effect of random geometric imperfection on the failure probability and reliability is recognized quantitatively. Buckling reliability decreases with the increase of mean value, cov of initial geometric imperfection under the same external load. Buckling probability under impact load is greater than those under static load with the same condition. From the probabilistic characteristics of imapct buckling load, relation between reliability index and safety parameter can be obtained in addition to the relation between load and reliability index. And those results can be used to determine the range of required safety parameter and acceptable imperfaction.

• Ocean Systems Engineering
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.135-155
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• 2019

One of the safest and the most economical methods to transfer oil and gas is pipeline system. Prediction and prevention of pipeline failures during its assessed lifecycle has considerable importance. The dropped object is one of the accidental scenarios in the failure of the submarine pipelines. In this paper, using Monte Carlo Sampling, the probability of damage to a submarine pipeline due to a box-shaped dropped object has been calculated in terms of dropped object impact frequency and energy transfer according to the DNV-RP-F107. Finally, Reliability sensitivity analysis considering random variables is carried out to determine the effect intensity of each parameter on damage probability. It is concluded that impact area and drag coefficient have the highest sensitivity and mass and add mass coefficient have the lowest sensitivity on probability of failure.

• 한국추진공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국추진공학회 2011년도 제37회 추계학술대회논문집
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• pp.400-403
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• 2011

직경 22 mm 정도의 케이블 절단을 위한 케이블커터의 화약량 예측을 위하여 인스트론을 사용한 정적 절단 시험과 Impact test machine을 이용한 낙하충격 시험을 실시하였다. 인스트론 시험 결과 케이블 절단에 필요한 에너지는 21.3 J로 측정되었다. Impact test는 5종류의 에너지 레벨에서 각각 8번씩 시험하였다. Impact test 시험 결과를 Probit 방법으로 분석한 결과, 99% 신뢰도에서 99.99% 절단하는 에너지는 37.7 J 로 예측되었다. 이 에너지는 ZPP 230 mg 이면 발생 가능할 것으로 판단 된다.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제6권1호
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• pp.15-23
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• 1981

This paper deals with cross impact analysis for technology assessment. The focus of the paper is to develop new technique of cross impact matrix using goal programming method. In this study, the idea of cross impact analysis based on scenario generation method especially SMIC-74 (2) is expanded. Critical literature review on SMIC-74 is presented to discuss the mathematical rationale of consistent probability in cross impact analysis. A new model of cross impact analysis using goal programming to overcome the shortcomings of the scenario generation technique especially SMIC-74 is developed. This new technique is also applied to the assessment of the air pollution problems in Seoul Metropolitan area in Korea. The results of analysis give us following findings 1) Cross impact analysis using goal programming produce more meaningful solutions comparing to those of SMIC-74 2) Theoretical rationale of the objective function in the newly developed technique is more appropriate than that of SMIC-74.

• 한국조경학회지
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• 제25권3호
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• pp.89-100
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• 1997

The purpose of this paper was to analyze the content of impact prediction in EISS, in order to find the degree of the acuracy of impact prediction . 30 EISS were selected as analysis objects through variance miximization strategy. Content analysis of the selected EISS was performed by 5 analysis items, such as quantification of measurement, range of impact area, time frame of impact, likelihood of impact, and explict characterization of impact significance. The results showed that the accuracy investigated by the 5 items was very low. In conclusion, 5 suggestions were proposed in order to improve the credibility of EIS as a scientific report. The 5 suggestions were : 1) impact prediction should be described by quantitative measurement; 2) In establishing the time frame of the impact and the referent populatioin influenced by the impact, the characteristics of the proposed action should be carefully considerd; 3) the significance of the predicted impact should be quantitatively described; 4) specific description should also be used in the likelihood or the probability of the predicted impact in a real world; 5) equal emphasis should be put on the three environment, including natural and social as well as living environment.