• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.47-60
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• 2023

Purpose - This paper assesses the trade potential and efficiency of Korea and China in the aquatic products trade. Trade efficiency and potential are the main factors that affect the growth of a country's trade. In this study, a time-varying stochastic frontier trade gravity model was constructed to analyze the trade potential and efficiency between Korea and China. By integrating the results of trade theory and empirical analysis, measures and suggestions were proposed to encourage the release of trade potential of fish exports between Korea and China. Design/methodology - In this paper, GDP per capita instead of economic size was chosen as an explanatory variable, and population size and relative distance were selected as explanatory variables to measure trade potential. For trade non-efficiency terms, regional organizations, political factors, and economic factors were mainly considered, and variables such as free trade agreements, political stability, regulatory quality, government efficiency, currency freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom, and trade freedom were selected. Panel data for South Korea and 14 aquatic products trading partners (including China) from 2002 to 2020 were used in the empirical analysis. Findings - In the past 19 years, South Korea's export trade potential of aquatic products to China has never been lower than 70%. It was above 90% from 2006 to 2018, and has been at a high level for a long time. This shows that China's aquatic product market has large potential for development. Originality/value - This study examines the effectiveness and potential of South Korea's exports of aquatic items to China in a methodical and comprehensive empirical manner. The evaluation of the export trade potential of South Korea's aquatic goods to China is more precise when the effects of regional organization, political, and economic variables are taken into account in the trade non-efficiency term of the stochastic frontier gravity model. At the same time, we propose to increase the scale of South Korea's aquatic products trade from the perspective of China's demand. This issue of trade studies is underexplored both empirically and in theory, although the issue has long been important to Korean and world trade.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.5 no.4
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• pp.95-100
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• 2018

The study investigates the factors that affect Kyrgyzstan's bilateral trade flows with its main trading partners and attempts to predict trade potential for Kyrgyzstan. Using panel data, the gravity model is applied to estimate Kyrgyzstan's trade from 2000 to 2016 for its 35 main trading partners. The coefficients derived from the gravity-model estimation are then used to predict trade potential for Kyrgyzstan. Results proved to be successful and explained 63% of the fluctuations in Kyrgyzstan's trade. According to the results, Kyrgyzstan's and its partners' GDP have a positive effect on trade, while distance and partners' population prove to have a negative effect. Predicted trade potential reveals that neighboring countries (China, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan) and Russia still have a significant trade potential. Kyrgyzstan, being a less developed economy, even by Central Asia standards, can only achieve its goals of reducing poverty and becoming more developed by increasing its overall trade with the rest of the world. Therefore, it is essential to study the main determinants of Kyrgyzstan's bilateral trade. In this way, we can help policy makers formulate policies to expand Kyrgyzstan's trade. This study is the first attempt to apply to the gravity model to Kyrgyzstan in an attempt to predict trade potential.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.61-76
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• 2023

Purpose - The digital service trade has become an important driver of the global service trade. The main purpose of this study is to explore the influencing factors of digital service exports from China and Korea to RCEP sample countries respectively, and to comprehensively study the export potential of China and Korea to RCEP countries, so as to provide theoretical guidance and a decision-making reference to promote digital service trade exports and digital economy development in China and Korea. Design/methodology - First, the stochastic frontier gravity model was improved by introducing nonefficiency factors affecting digital services trade, extending the gravity model of traditional services trade exports to digital services trade exports. Secondly, the panel data of China and Korea for the eight sample countries of RCEP from 2011 to 2021 were adopted for the empirical analysis of digital service export potential by a stochastic frontier model. Findings - China's economic growth plays a role in increasing China's digital service trade exports, while Korea's economic growth does not play a significant role in increasing Korea's digital service trade exports. However, the economic growth of trading partner countries can play a significant role in boosting the digital service trade in both China and Korea, and comparison shows that Korea has higher resilience in the digital services trade than China. In addition, the market size of target countries plays a positive role in promoting the digital service trade exports of both China and Korea, and the increase in the value-added share of services in target countries will lead to a decrease in the digital service trade exports of both China and Korea. Originality/value - This study is innovative in terms of research perspective and method. Academic research on the export potential of international trade has been extensive, but most studies are based on the perspective of the goods trade, fewer studies are based on the perspective of the service trade, and there are almost no studies based on the perspective of digital service trade. There is a gap based on the comparative analysis of the export potential of the digital service trade between China and Korea. This study extends the gravitational model of traditional service trade exports to digital service trade exports to comparatively analyze the export potential of China and Korea to RCEP countries. This study addresses this limitation by analyzing a comparative analysis of the digital service trade export potential of China and Korea.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.22 no.7
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• pp.216-226
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• 2022

With the signing of the China-Korea FTA agreement, it is of great practical significance to study the potential of electronic product trade between China and South Korea under the new situation to promote the development of electronic product trade between the two countries. Based on this, this paper selects the data related to the trade of electronic products between China and South Korea from 2005 to 2019. First, it analyzes the factors of the trade potential of electronic products between the two countries by building a trade gravity expansion model, and then calculates and compares the electronic products between China and South Korea. trade potential. The research results show that: (1) The economic scale, population scale and APEC member countries have a promoting effect on the trade volume between China and South Korea. The geographical distance has an inhibitory effect on the trade volume between China and South Korea. Trade freedom has a significant misuse of promotion for China's electronics trade, while it has no significant effect on South Korea's electronics trade. (2) After 2015, China's electronic product export trade potential to South Korea is huge. There is also a certain potential in South Korea's trade in electronic products with China, which needs to be explored with active policies.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.23 no.5
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• pp.66-86
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• 2019

Purpose - This paper describes the use of trade preferences under the EU-Korea free trade agreement (FTA) and empirically examines potential reasons for the less than full use, using data on daily EU imports from Korea at the product level. Design/methodology - We employ a probit model to analyse the relationship between the use of trade preferences on the one hand and variables such as potential duty savings, rules of origin and the characteristics of the good traded (intermediate input or final product) on the other. Findings - The paper finds that EU imports from Korea make good use of trade preferences with an overall preference utilisation rate of close to 90% in 2016, which is up from about 80% in 2012. It further shows that potential duty savings influence preference utilisation positively and that more than one quarter of the observations in our sample made use of preferences under EU-Korea FTA in 2012, despite duty savings standing at €10 or less. Originality/value - The finding that a non-negligible share of observations use preferences even when the duty savings are low has not yet figured in the literature. We further show how preference utilisation rates differ by importing EU Member State and by section of the Harmonised System and estimate the marginal impact of an increase in potential duty savings on the preference utilisation rate by broad product group, which is novel.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.9
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• pp.209-217
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• 2020

The purpose of this study is to investigate the development and determinants of China-ASEAN trade relations over the period of 2000-2018. Employing both the qualitative and quantitative approaches, the results show that the trade relations between China and the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) have remarkably developed and rapidly grown over times, with a significantly important concentration on the segments of high technological and medium technological products. We also find that China's economic scale is crucially impacting on the China-ASEAN trade relations under both the aggregate and sub-sector level. It is interesting to notice that there is no evidence to support accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) and officially forming of ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA) to enhance trade relation between both sides. The findings also quantitatively indicate that there is much significant potential for the expansion of mutual trade between China and some members of ASEAN such as Brunei, Laos and Malaysia, while less potential is predicted for other members of ASEAN. It is strongly suggested that China and ASEAN should find a new proactive approach and make more efforts in improving the mutual political trusts to enhance trading activities in the coming years.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.20-32
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• 2022

Purpose - This paper intends to make theoretical analysis and empirical test on the factors influencing China's export to South Korea, and draw conclusions about China's export efficiency and trade potential. Based on the conclusions, the reasons for China's trade deficit with South Korea are found, and a solution is put forward for solving the problem of China's trade deficit with South Korea. Design/methodology - Based on the data of 2004-2017 years in China, this paper uses the stochastic frontier gravity model to analyze the influencing factors of China's export to South Korea, as well as the export efficiency of each province and the export potential that can be explored. Findings - First, in terms of the factors affecting China's export trade to South Korea, the GDP of the provinces and cities in China, the FDI of South Korea to the provinces and cities in China, the GDP of South Korea, the population and education level of provinces and cities in China can significantly promote the export scale of Chinese provinces and cities to South Korea. The distance between Chinese provincial capitals and the South Korean capital significantly hinders Chinese exports to South Korea; Second, in terms of export trade efficiency, the trade exchange rate of the economically developed cities along the eastern coast of China and several provinces that are close to South Korea is higher than that of the cities in the central and western regions; Third, economic globalization makes trade more convenient, the average export trade efficiency of China's exports to South Korea showed an upward trend. However, under the influence of the 2008 global financial crisis, the export trade efficiency declined from 2008 to 2009, indicating that the impact of the financial crisis on the trade efficiency cannot be ignored. Originality/value - This paper finds out the influencing factors of China's export to South Korea, analyzes the export efficiency of different provinces and cities, excavates the export potential, and puts forward some suggestions for the balanced development of China and South Korea trade in the next step.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.279-309
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• 2016

The proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a free trade agreement among 12 Pacific Rim countries whose joint gross domestic products (GDPs) account for 36 percent of world GDP and whose mutual trade accounts for approximately 24 percent of world trade. As for most proposed free trade agreements (FTAs), trade economists have provided ex ante computable general equilibrium (CGE) estimates to predict the trade, employment, and real per capita income effects of this agreement, such as ITC (2016). This paper-intended to complement these studies-examines the potential impacts of TPP beyond such traditional CGE estimates, taking a broader economic, governance, and historical perspective. First, we contrast these traditional CGE trade and welfare estimates that treat all firms within an industry as homogeneous with more recent CGE analyses that allow firms' productivities to be heterogeneous. We show that the latter models' trade predictions are much more consistent with ex post empirical evidence of average trade effects of FTAs. Second, empirical evidence now strongly confirms the existence of FTA "contagion." We review this evidence and show that predictive models of the evolution of FTAs indicate that the TPP should be formed. With China now having formed 12 FTAs and negotiating five new ones (including a sixteen member Asia-Pacific FTA), the United States would likely face considerable trade diversion without the TPP. Third, we examine empirical evidence on the likely further economic growth implications of FTAs by reducing firms' uncertainty over trade relations and trade policies. Fourth, we examine empirical evidence on the additional impact of FTAs on consolidating democratic institutions in countries. The TPP would likely help consolidate some of the less mature democracies. Fifth, we examine empirical evidence on the reductions of conflicts (and enhanced peace) between countries owing to the formations of FTAs. We conclude the paper noting that the potential net benefits to member countries of the proposed TPP extend well beyond the real income gains to households based upon traditional CGE models.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.14 no.11
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• pp.135-142
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• 2016

Although growth potential of trade between Korea and the GCC region has existed in various fields through economic and business cooperation, few data and practical study related with trade structure and cooperation between Korea and GCC region have been found and the potential for further economic expansion has not been extensively explored. In this sense, this study is to analyze trade flows between Korea and GCC region countries(Saudi Arabia, Unites Arab Emirates, Qatar) using trade intensity index, trade complementarity index and special country bias index, identify potential for further expansion of Korea's trade into the GCC region and further propose the implication of FTA between mutual countries. Our analysis of trade flows also demonstrates that there is a high level of trade complementarity between Korea and GCC region. It means that increase of trade complementarity and special country bias come from removing not only trade barrier and increasing but also capital movement. Especially, the study reveals that there is an untapped potential for Korea to increase its exports to Saudi, based on the highest complementarities. Export expansion between Korea and Saudi through FTA will create new opportunity in near future.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.67-90
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• 2016

This paper provides an assessment of the potential economic impacts of the Vietnam-Korea free trade agreement on Vietnam, by using general equilibrium modeling. The results show that Vietnam-Korea FTA will increase aggregate welfare for both countries in the long run. The most important gains accrue from better allocation of resources consequent to trade liberalization. All the sectoral differences and changes are consistent with the trade profiles of the two countries, and the long-run results are more pronounced than those of the short-run. In comparison with other ASEAN countries, the CGE analysis suggests that Vietnam's agriculture exports to Korea would especially rise in the long run. However, there will be strong competition in this sector among ASEAN members. Thus, an earlier conclusion of a comprehensive FTA with Korea is expected to be a good strategy for Vietnam, so as to avoid the direct competition with ASEAN members in the future.