• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제16권9호
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• pp.4115-4121
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• 2015

Background: Colorectal cancer is the second most common cause of cancer death with half a million deaths per year. Incidence and mortality rates have demonstrated notable changes in Asian and African countries during the last few decades. In this study, we first aimed to determine the trend of colorectal cancer mortality rate in each Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) region, and then re-classify them to find more homogenous classes. Materials and Methods: Our study population consisted of 52 countries of Asia and North Africa in six IHME pre-defined regions for both genders and age-standardized groups from 1990 to 2010.We first applied simple growth models for pre-defined IHME regions to estimate the intercepts and slopes of mortality rate trends. Then, we clustered the 52 described countries using the latent growth mixture modeling approach for classifying them based on their colorectal mortality rates over time. Results: Statistical analysis revealed that males and people in high income Asia pacific and East Asia countries were at greater risk of death from colon and rectum cancer. In addition, South Asia region had the lowest rates of mortality due to this cancer. Simple growth modeling showed that majority of IHME regions had decreasing trend in mortality rate of colorectal cancer. However, re-classification these countries based on their mortality trend using the latent growth mixture model resulted in more homogeneous classes according to colorectal mortality trend. Conclusions: In general, our statistical analyses showed that most Asian and North African countries had upward trend in their colorectal cancer mortality. We therefore urge the health policy makers in these countries to evaluate the causes of growing mortality and study the interventional programs of successful countries in managing the consequences of this cancer.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제16권5호
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• pp.1959-1964
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• 2015

Purpose: To investigate the distribution of liver cancer mortality as well as its developing trend from 1991 to 2012, forecast the future five-year trend, and provide a basis for the comprehensive prevention and management. Materials and Methods: Mortality data for liver cancer in China from 1991 to 2012 were used to describe characteristics and distribution of liver cancer mortality. Trend surface analysis was used to study the geographical distribution of liver cancer mortality. Curve estimation, time series modeling, gray modeling (GM) and joinpoint regression were used to predict and forecast future trends. Results: The mortality rate of liver cancer has constantly increased in China since 1991. Rates in rural areas are higher than in urban areas, and in males are higher than in females. In addition, our data predicted that the trend will continue to increase in the next 5 years. The age-specific mortality of liver cancer increases with age and peaks in the group of 80-84 years old. Geographical analysis showed the liver mortality rate was higher in the southeast provinces, such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong, and southwest regions like Guangxi Province. Conclusions: The standardized mortality rate of liver cancer in China has consistently increased from 1991 to 2012, and the upward trend is predicted to continue in the future. Much better prevention and management of liver cancer is needed in high mortality areas (the southwestern and southeastern parts of China) and high mortality age groups (80- to 84-year-olds), especially in rural areas.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제14권3호
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• pp.2067-2070
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• 2013

Background/Aim: Stomach cancer is the second most common cause of death from all malignant tumors in the world (third in men, fifth in women), with a strong decreasing trend in most developed countries. The aim of this descriptive epidemiological study was to analyze mortality of stomach cancer in Serbia, excluding the Province of Kosovo, in the 1991-2009 period. Materials and Methods: In data analysis, we used mortality rates which were standardized directly using those of the world population as a standard. In order to analyze the mortality trend from stomach cancer, linear trend and regression analysis were used. Confidence intervals (CIs) for the average age-adjusted and age-specific mortality rates were assessed with 95% level of probability. Mortality data were derived from the data file of the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia. Results: During the 1991-2009 period, a significant downward trend in mortality of stomach cancer was recorded in Serbia (y=9.78 - 0.13x, p=0.000; average annual percent change was -6.3 (95%CI, -7.8 to - 4.8). During the same period, a significant decrease in mortality trend was found both in male (y=14.13 - 0.20x; p=0.000; % change was -7.7 (95%CI, -10.9 to -4.5) and female populations (y=6.27 - 0.08x; p=0.000; % change was - 4.4 (95%CI, -5.3 to -3.6). Conclusion: Decreasing trends in mortality from stomach cancer in Serbia are similar to those in most developed countries.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제13권6호
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• pp.2495-2502
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• 2012

Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is a disease with distinct ethnic and geographic distribution. The incidence of NPC in Chinese residing in Asia has declined over the last few decades, but NPC mortality trends in the entire Chinese population over time have not been systematically evaluated. In this study, we examined NPC mortality at the national level in China between 1973-2005. Mortality rates were derived from the databases of national retrospective surveys on cancer mortality conducted in the periods of 1973-1975, 1990-1992, and 2004-2005, respectively. NPC was classified according to the International classification of diseases. Age-adjusted mortality rates were calculated by direct standardization according to the world standard population. Trends in rates were evaluated by age, gender, geographic areas, and socioeconomic status. From 1973 to 2005, there was a general trend of decrease in NPC mortality in China, with higher rates in the south on a downward trend in the north. The age-standardized NPC mortality rates were 2.60 per 100,000 in 1973-1975, 1.94 per 100,000 in 1990-1992, and 1.30 per 100,000 in 2004-2005, respectively. The trend was similar in both men and women, in both urban and rural areas, but the declining rates in females were more remarkable than in males. The mortality rates were higher for the age groups above 50 years than those less than 50 years of age, both showing downward trend over 30-year period. In summary, the overall NPC mortality has consistently decreased in China over the past three decades, particularly in women and in old adults.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제16권17호
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• pp.7991-7995
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• 2015

Background: To identify the epidemiological characteristics of colorectal cancer mortality in China during the period of 1991-2011, and forecast the future five-year trend. Materials and Methods: Mortality data for colorectal cancer in China from 1991 to 2011 was used to describe epidemiological characteristics in terms of age group, gender, and rural/urban residence. Trend surface analysis was performed to analyze the geographical distribution of colorectal cancer. Four models including curve estimation, time series modeling, gray modeling and joinpoint regression were applied to forecast the trends for the future five years. Results: Since 1991 the colorectal cancer mortality rate increased yearly, and our results showed that the trend would continue to increase in the ensuing 5 years. The mortality rate in males was higher than that of females and the rate in urban areas was higher than in rural areas. The mortality rate was relatively low for individuals less than 60 years of age, but increased dramatically afterwards. People living in the northeastern China provinces or in eastern China had a higher mortality rate for colorectal cancer than those living in middle or western China provinces. Conclusions: The steadily increasing mortality of colorectal cancer in China will become a substantial public health burden in the foreseeable future. For this increasing trend to be controlled, further efforts should concentrate on educating the general public to increase prevention and early detection by screening. More effective prevention and management strategies are needed in higher mortality areas (Eastern parts of China) and high-risk populations (60+ years old).

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제15권6호
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• pp.2785-2791
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• 2014

Aims: To analyze time-dependent changes in female breast cancer (BC) mortality in China, forecast the trend in the ensuing 5 years, and provide recommendations for prevention and management. Materials and Methods: Mortality data of breast cancer in China from 1991 to 2011 was used to describe characteristics and distribution, such as the changes of the standardized mortality rate, urban-rural differences and age differences. Trend-surface analysis was used to study the geographical distribution of mortality. In addition, curve estimation, time series modeling, Gray modeling (GM) and joinpoint regression were performed to estimate and predict future trends. Results: In China, the mortality rate of breast cancer has increased yearly since 1991. In addition, our data predicted that the trend will continue to increase in the ensuing 5 years. Rates in urban areas are higher than those in rural areas. Over the past decade, all peak ages for death by breast cancer have been delayed, with the first death peak occurring at 55 to 65 years of age in urban and rural areas. Geographical analysis indicated that mortality rates increased from Southwest to Northeast and from West to East. Conclusions: The standardized mortality rate of breast cancer in China is rising and the upward trend is predicted to continue for the next 5 years. Since this can cause an enormous health impact in China, much better prevention and management of breast cancer is needed. Consequently, disease control centers in China should place more focus on the northeastern, eastern and southeastern parts of China for breast cancer prevention and management, and the key population should be among women between ages 55 to 65, especially those in urban communities.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제16권14호
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• pp.5829-5834
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• 2015

Objective: To describe and analyze the epidemiological characteristics of lung cancer mortality in China from 1991 to 2013, forecast the future five-year trend and provide scientific evidence for prevention and management of lung cancer. Materials and Methods: Mortality data for lung cancer in China from 1991 to 2013 were used to describe epidemiological characteristics. Trend surface analysis was applied to analyze the geographical distribution of lung cancer. Four models, curve estimation, time series modeling, gray modeling (GM) and joinpoint regression, were performed to forecast the trend for the future. Results: Since 1991 the mortality rate of lung cancer increased yearly. The rate for males was higher than that for females and rates in urban areas were higher than in rural areas. In addition, our results showed that the trend will continue to increase in the ensuing 5 years. The mortality rate increased from age 45-50 and peaked in the group of 85 years old. Geographical analysis indicated that people living in northeast China provinces and the coastal provinces in eastern China had a higher mortality rate for lung cancer than those living in the centre or western Chinese provinces. Conclusions: The standardized mortality rate of lung cancer has constantly increased from 1991 to 2013, and been predicted to continue in the ensuing 5 years. Further efforts should be concentrated on education of the general public to increase prevention and early detection. Much better prevention and management is needed in high mortality areas (northeastern and eastern parts of China) and high risk populations (45-50-year-olds).

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제45권3호
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• pp.196-203
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• 2012

Objectives: Even though experimental studies have suggested that iron can be involved in generating oxidative stress, epidemiologic studies on the association of markers of body iron stores with cardiovascular disease or cancer remain controversial. This study was performed to examine the association of serum ferritin and transferrin saturation (%TS) with all-cause, cancer, and cardiovascular mortality. Methods: The study subjects were men aged 50 years or older and postmenopausal women of the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1988-1994. Participants were followed-up for mortality through December 31, 2006. Results: Serum ferritin was not associated with all-cause, cancer, or cardiovascular mortality for either men or postmenopausal women. However, all-cause, cancer, and cardiovascular mortality were inversely associated with %TS in men. Compared with men in the lowest quintile, adjusted hazard ratios for all-cause, cancer, and cardiovascular mortality were 0.85, 0.86, 0.76, and 0.74 ($p$ for trend < 0.01), 0.82, 0.73, 0.75, and 0.63 ($p$ for trend < 0.01), and 0.86, 0.81, 0.72, and 0.76 ($p$ for trend < 0.01), respectively. For postmenopausal women, inverse associations were also observed for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, but cancer mortality showed the significantly lower mortality only in the 2nd quintile of %TS compared with that of the 1st quintile. Conclusions: Unlike speculation on the role of iron from experimental studies, %TS was inversely associated with allcause, cancer and cardiovascular mortality in men and postmenopausal women. On the other hand, serum ferritin was not associated with all-cause, cancer, or cardiovascular mortality.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제15권24호
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• pp.10787-10790
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• 2015

Background: Ovarian cancer is an important cause of mortality in women. The aim of this study was to evaluate the incidence and mortality rates and trends in the Iranian population and make predictions. Materials and Methods: National incidence from Iranian annual of National Cancer Registration report from 2003 to 2009 and National Death Statistics reported by the Ministry of Health and Medical Education from 1999 to 2004 were included in this study. A time series model (autoregressive) was used to predict the mortality for the years 2007, 2008, 2012 and 2013, with results expressed as annual mortality rates per 100,000. Results: The general mortality rate of ovarian cancer slightly increased during the years under study from 0.01 to 0.75 and reaching plateau according to the prediction model. Mortality was higher for older age. The incidence also increased during the period of the study. Conclusions: Our study indicated remarkable increasing trends in ovarian cancer mortality and incidence. Therefore, attention to high risk groups and setting awareness programs for women are needed to reduce the associated burden in the future.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제14권6호
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• pp.3581-3585
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• 2013

Background: Accurate statistics on the cancer burden are essential, both for purposes of research and for setting priorities in healthcare management. So that in vast countries with partial registration coverage, such as Iran, local data are more useful. We here estimated the incidence, prevalence and mortality time trend of four major cancer site, lung, stomach, breast and prostate, over the period 2001-2010 and provided short-range projections to 2015 in Isfahan. Materials and Methods: Estimates were derived by applying the mortality-incidence analysis method, a back-calculation approach to estimate and project incidence, prevalence and mortality of chronic degenerative disease, starting from knowledge of mortality and relative survival information. Results: Age adjusted incidence, mortality and prevalence rates in Isfahan exhibited a clear upward trend for all four sites during the period 2001-2015, with marked increasees in prostate and breast predicted for the future. Difference in incidence trends between males and females might be attributable to the difference in risk factors specific to certain cancer sites, with smoking being the main risk factor. Conclusions: In this study, males and females displayed an increasing pattern for incidence and mortality rate over the entire study period until 2015. This information can be used as basis for planning healthcare management and allocating recourses in public health.