• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.275-288
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• 2023

Based on the crucial role of high-speed railway bridges (HSRBs) in the safety of high-speed railway operations, it is an important approach to mitigate earthquake hazards by proceeding with seismic risk assessments in their whole life. Bridge seismic risk assessment, which usually evaluates the seismic performance of bridges from a probabilistic perspective, provides technical support for bridge risk management. The seismic performance of bridges is greatly affected by the degradation of material properties, therefore, material damage plays a nonnegligible role in the seismic risk assessment of the bridge. The effect of material damage is not considered in most current studies on seismic risk analysis of bridges, nevertheless. To fill the gap in this area, in this paper, a nonlinear dynamic time-history analysis has been carried out by establishing OpenSees finite element model, and a seismic vulnerability analysis is carried out based on the incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) method. On this basis, combined with the site risk analysis, the time-dependent seismic risk analysis of an offshore three-span HSRB in the whole life cycle has been conducted. The results showed that the seismic risk probabilities of both components and system of the bridge increase with the service time, and their seismic risk probabilities increase significantly in the last service period due to the degradation of the material strength, which demonstrates that the impact of durability damage should be considered when evaluating the seismic performance of bridges in the design and service period.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.34 no.5
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• pp.159-166
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• 2019

The seismic PSA is to probabilistically estimate the potential damage that a large earthquake will cause to a nuclear power plant. It integrates the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, seismic fragility analysis, and system analysis and is utilized to identify seismic vulnerability and improve seismic capacity of nuclear power plants. Recently, the seismic risk of domestic multi-unit nuclear power plant sites has been evaluated after the Great East Japan Earthquake and Gyeongju Earthquake in Korea. However, while the currently available methods for system analysis can derive basic required results of seismic PSA, they do not provide the detailed results required for the efficient improvement of seismic capacity. Therefore, for in-depth seismic risk evaluation, improved system analysis method for seismic PSA has become necessary. This study develops a system analysis method that is not only suitable for multi-unit seismic PSA but also provides risk information for the seismic capacity improvements. It will also contribute to the enhancement of the safety of nuclear power plants by identifying the seismic vulnerability using the detailed results of seismic PSA. In addition, this system analysis method can be applied to other external event PSAs, such as fire PSA and tsunami PSA, which require similar analysis.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.69 no.3
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• pp.317-326
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• 2019

This research aims to assess the tight seismic risk curve of the intake tower at Geumgwang reservoir by considering the recorded historical earthquake data in the Korean Peninsula. The seismic fragility, a significant part of risk assessment, is updated by using Bayesian inference to consider the uncertainties and computational efficiency. The reservoir is one of the largest reservoirs in Korea for the supply of agricultural water. The intake tower controls the release of water from the reservoir. The seismic risk assessment of the intake tower plays an important role in the risk management of the reservoir. Site-specific seismic hazard is computed based on the four different seismic source maps of Korea. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) method is used to estimate the annual exceedance rate of hazard for corresponding Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA). Hazard deaggregation is shown at two customary hazard levels. Multiple dynamic analyses and a nonlinear static pushover analysis are performed for deriving fragility parameters. Thereafter, Bayesian inference with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used to update the fragility parameters by integrating the results of the analyses. This study proves to reduce the uncertainties associated with fragility and risk curve, and to increase significant statistical and computational efficiency. The range of seismic risk curve of the intake tower is extracted for the reservoir site by considering four different source models and updated fragility function, which can be effectively used for the risk management and mitigation of reservoir.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.421-427
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• 2017

Seismic safety evaluation of weir structure is significant considering the catastrophic economical consequence of operational disruption. In recent years, the seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) has been issued as a key area of research for the hydraulic system to mitigate and manage the risk. The aim of this paper is to assess the seismic probabilistic risk of weir structures employing the seismic hazard and the structural fragility in Korea. At the first stage, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) approach is performed to extract the hazard curve at the weir site using the seismic and geological data. Thereafter, the seismic fragility that defines the probability of structural collapse is evaluated by using the incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) method in accordance with the four different design limit states as failure identification criteria. Consequently, by combining the seismic hazard and fragility results, the seismic risk curves are developed that contain helpful information for risk management of hydraulic structures. The tensile stress of the mass concrete is found to be more vulnerable than other design criteria. The hazard deaggregation illustrates that moderate size and far source earthquakes are the most likely scenario for the site. In addition, the annual loss curves for two different hazard source models corresponding to design limit states are extracted.

• Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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• v.24 no.5
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• pp.48-54
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• 2010

The analysis of the seismic risk of an offshore structure with a control device is presented. First, a probability density function was developed to represent seismic hazard, and seismic fragility under artificial earthquake conditions was determined. Fragility curves for an offshore structure with both passive and active control devices were determined. Displacement criteria were set to evaluate the performance of the structure. Based on numerical analysis, the seismic risk to the structure was considerably reduced when the structure had a seismic control device. The seismic risk to the actively controlled structure was decreased by 80% compared to the uncontrolled case. Reasonable performance evaluations of offshore structure with control devices can be conducted through risk analysis.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.8 no.6 s.40
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• pp.31-43
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• 2004

Seismic risk assessment of bridge is presented using fragility curves which represent the probability of damage of a structure virsus the peak ground acceleration. In theseismic fragility analysis, the structural damage is defined using the rotational ductility at the base of the bridge pier, which is obtained through nonlinear dynamic analysis for various input earthquakes. For the assessment of seismic risk of bridge, peak ground accelerations are obatined for various return periods from the seismic hazard map of Korea, which enables to calculate the probability density function of peak ground acceleration. Combining the probability density function of peak ground acceleration and the seismic fragility analysis, seismic risk assessment is performed. In this study, seismic fragility analysis is developed as a function of not the surface motion which the bridge actually suffers, but the rock outcrop motion which the aseismic design code is defined on, so that further analysis for the seismic hazard assessment may become available. Besides, the effects of the friction pot bearings and the friction pendulum bearings on the seismic fragility and risk analysis are examined. Lastly, three regions in Korea are considered and compared in the seismic risk assessment.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.5 no.5
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• pp.607-624
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• 2013

In this study the seismic risk assessments of six- and twelve-story staggered wall system structures with three different structural variations were performed. The performances of staggered wall structures with added columns along the central corridor and the structures with their first story walls replaced by beams and columns were compared with those of the regular staggered wall structures. To this end incremental dynamic analyses were carried out using twenty two pairs of earthquake records to obtain the failure probabilities for various intensity of seismic load. The seismic risk for each damage state was computed based on the fragility analysis results and the probability of occurrence of earthquake ground motions. According to the analysis results, it was observed that the structures with added columns along the central corridor showed lowest probability of failure and seismic risk. The structures with their first story walls replaced by beams and columns showed lowest margin for safety.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.18 no.6
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• pp.661-668
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• 2019

Seismic vulnerability assessment is a useful tool for rational safety analysis and planning of large and complex structural systems; it can deal with the effects of uncertainties on the performance of significant structural systems. In this study, an efficient dynamic reliability approach, probability density evolution methodology (PDEM), is proposed for seismic vulnerability analysis of earth dams. The PDEM provides the failure probability of different limit states for various levels of ground motion intensity as well as the mean value, standard deviation and probability density function of the performance metric of the earth dam. Combining the seismic reliability with three different performance levels related to the displacement of the earth dam, the seismic fragility curves are constructed without them being limited to a specific functional form. Furthermore, considering the seismic fragility analysis is a significant procedure in the seismic probabilistic risk assessment of structures, the seismic vulnerability results obtained by the dynamic reliability approach are combined with the results of probabilistic seismic hazard and seismic loss analysis to present and address the PDEM-based seismic probabilistic risk assessment framework by a simulated case study of an earth dam.

• Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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• v.19 no.1 s.62
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• pp.26-32
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• 2005

Recent earthquakes, measuring over a magnitude of 5.0, on the eastern coast of Korea, have aroused interest in earthquake analyses and the seismic design of caisson-type breakwaters. Most earthquake analysis methods, such as equivalent static analysis, response spectrum analysis, nonlinear analysis, and capacity analysis, are deterministic and have been used for seismic design and performance evaluation of coastal structures. However, deterministic methods are difficult for reflecting on one of the most important characteristics of earthquakes, i.e. the uncertainty of earthquakes. This paper presents results of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment(PSHA) of an actual caisson-type breakwater, considering uncertainties of earthquake occurrences and soil properties. First, the seismic vulnerability of a structure and the seismic hazard of the site are evaluated, using earthquake sets and a seismic hazard map; then, the seismic risk of the structure is assessed.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.53-58
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• 2021

Nuclear power plant's safety against seismic events is evaluated as risk values by probabilistic seismic safety assessment. The risk values vary by the seismic failure correlation between the structures, systems, and components (SSCs). However, most probabilistic seismic safety assessments idealized the seismic failure correlation between the SSCs as entirely dependent or independent. Such a consideration results in an inaccurate assessment result not reflecting real physical phenomenon. A nuclear power plant's seismic risk should be calculated with the appropriate seismic failure correlation coefficient between the SSCs for a reasonable outcome. An accident scenario that has an enormous impact on a nuclear power plant's seismic risk was selected. Moreover, the probabilistic seismic response analyses of a nuclear power plant were performed to derive appropriate seismic failure correlations between SSCs. Based on the analysis results, the seismic failure correlation coefficient between SSCs was derived, and the seismic fragility curve and core damage frequency of the loss of essential power event were calculated. Results were compared with the seismic fragility and core damage frequency of assuming the seismic failure correlations between SSCs were independent and entirely dependent.